The olive harvest will begin in the second half of October, but it is already possible to estimate the 2026 season in terms of high temperatures, quantity, quality, and prices. There are also areas that might see an earlier harvest. ‘Like those of Sessa Aurunca and Cellole, which are more exposed to the sea,’ report Enrico Amico and Giuseppe Miselli, president and director of Coldiretti Caserta. Excessive heat will lead to a drop in production. ‘Around 20%,’ says the association. ‘It was not just a matter of temperatures, but also their duration. Except for some flat areas, most olive groves in the province of Caserta are on hills, in places difficult to irrigate. High temperatures cause the plant to block photosynthetic activity to avoid losing substances, thus limiting fruit growth and automatically impacting quantity. The harvest has not yet started, so it is too early to draw final conclusions. However, we can say that there have been no significant olive fly attacks, and the quality will be excellent.’
Costs
Then there is the matter of price. In December 2025, with the harvest nearly over, the average cost was about 12 euros per liter, lower than the 14 euros of the previous year. ‘Now we can refer to a near-future price in line with 2024. We will see how the market moves, also in light of the recent ban on labeling as extra virgin olive oil any product resulting from mixing extra virgin and virgin oils. This will block unscrupulous traders and favor quality products.’ This is a step that the association sees as very important for protecting consumers and companies, who work daily to defend the transparency of the olive oil supply chain and to promote local products. However, the issue is not limited to this. The question of origin is also at stake. ‘Consumers must be careful because sometimes, behind a label with the Italian flag, there is a product made with olives that come from abroad but are milled in our territory. The Customs Code allows this, and we continue to fight for its revision. This does not only concern oil, but all products. We want the Made in Italy brand to be recognized exclusively for products that are truly and entirely Italian.’
Varieties
In the province of Caserta, there are the “tonda” of Matese, the “sessana,” and the “caiazzana”; cultivars such as leccino, frantoio, and cornaiola are also widely grown. ‘We are talking about crops concentrated at the foot of the Matese, near Roccamonfina, in the Caiatino area, and the Sessana area,’ add Amico and Miselli, who emphasize ‘the absence of competition with industrial oils’ due to the completely different type, which makes the two products comparable by classification but not by characteristics. ‘Caserta oil,’ they underline, ‘can be considered as a food rather than a condiment. Moreover, it is one of the cornerstones of the Mediterranean diet, and consumers should purchase it knowingly, aware of the characteristics of what they are choosing. Extra virgin is indeed a classification, but then there is the great difference determined by the presence of polyphenols. These are what cause the so-called tingling in the throat and attest to the quality of the product.’
Concerns
Vincenzo Argo, president of Confagricoltura Caserta, is more concerned about profitability. ‘The olive tree has a seasonal cycle,’ he says, ‘and alternates years of high and low yield. This 2026 is a high-yield year, but it is possible that the yield will not be optimal due to drought. The past months have been very dry. If it rains between now and the harvest, the olives could “fill out,” but right now it is too early to make definite assessments about quantity and quality, as we need to wait for full ripening.’ From a phytopathological point of view, Argo instead highlights positive signals: ‘There are no emergency problems at all, but as far as the socio-economic trend is concerned, the signals are not encouraging. Prices are stagnant, whereas production costs have increased greatly, significantly affecting the lives of farming businesses and thus the families involved. There is therefore a risk of low profitability. This is an issue that should be addressed and affects the entire agricultural sector, and olives are certainly not excluded. We must wait and see how the next few weeks go as we approach the harvest.’
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